Water: The cause of the next global conflict?

Water Wars

In the 20th century, the world's wars were predominately defined by political conflicts and clashes over ideology. However, in the 21st century, something else threatens to define our struggles - resources. While one can argue the first decade of the 21st century was defined by combating terrorism and controlling oil supplies, there is something far more important to the survival of mankind that could be the cause of the next major global conflict, something that is actually surpassing oil as the world's scarcest critical resource - water.

The world's supply of fresh water is running out, accounting for only 2.5 percent of the planet's entire water supply. An explosion in global population growth has put a huge strain on resources of usable water, and already one person in five has no access to safe drinking water.

Astonishingly, over the past century world water use has increased twice as fast as the global population. Hydration is perhaps the most important use for water, but it is by far the only use. It is the lifeblood of all society with the agricultural and infrastructure industries all relying on water to operate.

"Water could trigger or exacerbate conflict"

On September 15 last year, the UK's Secretary of State for Defence Bob Ainsworth delivered a speech at King's College London. His speech focused on defence strategies of the future and some of the major challenges facing British defence in the face of conflicts around the globe.

In what came as a surprise to many attending this speech, this is what he said:

"We can conclude that current trends of resource use are unsustainable particularly in the context of the growth of global population and growing social aspirations. Competition for resources such as water, arable land and strategic minerals may trigger or exacerbate conflict."

Also, little over a year and a half ago at the Goldman Sachs "Top Five Risks" conference in June 2008, global experts also insisted that a catastrophic water shortage could prove an even bigger threat to mankind this century than soaring food prices and the relentless exhaustion of energy reserves.

Aquifers could run dry

At the conference they warned that, on the economics of climate change, underground aquifers could run dry at the same time as melting glaciers, playing havoc with fresh supplies of usable water.

As fresh water reserves start to dwindle, a frightening amount of power will fall into the hands of a very small number of people, and the opportunities for water companies across the globe are obvious. Analysts and experts argue that governments have handed too much power over to private water companies, with some even suggesting these firms want to create a "water cartel".

A history of underinvestment across the globe means that a huge windfall is on its way for water companies. In the US alone, the shortfall between actual investment and the industry's real needs is estimated to be $122 billion for waste water treatment and $100 billion for drinking water over the next 12 years, according to Michael Dean of the Environmental Protection Agency.

Considering the dangers

There is a real danger that one day, every single drop of fresh water left in the world will be privately owned and controlled. The potential for conflict is clear.

If we reach a time where the world is divided into water haves and have-nots, desperation could spawn drastic reaction. China, India and Pakistan are just three countries facing critical water issues in the 21st century, failing to mention almost the entire continent of Africa.

Consider the dangers of water-distressed, over-populated, nuclear-armed nations with a history of terrorist activity who are left with an ultimatum - gain access to water any way they can or let their population become ravaged by starvation and dehydration.

This could become a genuine problem for world leaders to deal with in the 21st century.

Curbing water use

However there are steps governments can take to stave off this most devastating of shortages. The United States has made significant progress in curbing its water use, thanks to market forces and legislation such as the Clean Water Act. Technology for desalination and recycling must also come in to play an increasing role in the industry.

Banks around the world need to become more creative in matching the financing of capital outlays in the industry with the long lives of water treatment facilities.

Even focusing on the more mundane tasks of controlling leaking pipes can make a huge difference on a global scale. Either way, something simply must be done if we are to prevent these wars over water.

There are ways we can live without crude oil, it would be difficult, but populations would survive. Without water there is no argument, societies cannot survive and a severe global shortage will make conflict inevitable.

Related Articles:

The threat of a global water shortage | Keeping our heads above water | Did rich lie to poor over climate change cash?

Daniel Jones

Daniel is a Politics and Philosophy graduate from Cardiff University where he also worked as a section editor on the award winning student newspaper. After university he joined an IT support company where he was a B2B online writer. He loves anything to do with sport and joined GDS in July 2009.

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