The cost of GHG policy to California...

California Emissions Laws

California's Global Warming Solutions Act (or AB 32) was one of the most aggressive emissions reductions plans of any American state but there have been concerns among many Californians that the measures have been costing the state jobs and holding back economic growth since it was established in 2006.

The act aimed to cut California's carbon emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 through a cap-and-trade programme; California's aggressive 33 percent by 2020 renewable energy mandate; standards for building energy efficiency, vehicle emissions and low-carbon fuels; amongst other policies.

However, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) has directed its staff to update its analysis of the effects of the Global Warming Solutions Act in a attempt to alleviate concerns. Amid a influx of contradictory studies analyzing the economic impact of California's climate change mitigation initiatives, the state agency in charge of implementing the plan has shown that job and income growth is looking pretty similar to what it considers to be 'business-as-usual'.

"Overly optimistic" results

However Recharge News reports that the new analysis, vetted by an independent panel, is not quite so positive as the one issued in late 2008. In that report analysts forecast the increase in gross state product to hit $7 billion by 2020.

Yet the new figures actually project a decrease of $4 billion, but taking into account California's huge economy that represents essentially the same growth rate as could be expected without the policies.

Furthermore, the 2008 study expected the polices to create 100,000 jobs above business-as-usual numbers. The new figures project just ten percent of this figure. The new analysis finds similarly smaller increases in per capita income.

The overall economy under AB 32 policies is expected to is expected to reach essentially the same 2020 level it would without them, but the added bonus is that carbon emissions will decrease along the way.

One must remain cautious over figures released by groups both in support and opposition of such acts, as both can project bias data. The AB 32 Implementation Group have even criticized the latest CARB analysis, calling it "overly optimistic".

Make or break time

The group said in a statement: "Basically their conclusion is that AB 32, the most far-reaching regulation in history won't impact jobs in California.

"We view that conclusion very skeptically given the fact CARB's own economic advisers have found that AB 32 would increase the cost of electricity, natural gas and gasoline and could impose a cap-and-trade tax of billions of dollars."

The global financial crisis is likely to give an unfair representation of California's performance under AB 32 policies, especially as unemployment is currently extremely high in the state (the rate stood at 12.5 percent in January).

The decisions made on AB 32 policies could well make or break the person who succeeds Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Related Articles:

Green jobs give ex-cons brighter future | California: Expect a massive earthquake | Breakthroughs and concerns for smart grid

Daniel Jones

Daniel is a Politics and Philosophy graduate from Cardiff University where he also worked as a section editor on the award winning student newspaper. After university he joined an IT support company where he was a B2B online writer. He loves anything to do with sport and joined GDS in July 2009.

Like this article? Get the RSS feed: