Urban legends

If space travel had been possible 100 years ago, those early astronauts would have seen the light from 16 concentrations of a million or more people. Today, the crew of the space shuttle can see 450 such shining cities on the globe – the economic, governmental, cultural and technological power plants of an increasingly urban age.

“Mexico City is sinking, in some areas up to 16 inches a year, threatening its entire infrastructure - including the city's deteriorating drainage system.”

The pace of such development is staggering. At the turn of the last century, only 13 percent of the world’s population lived in cities; two years ago, for the first time ever, more than half of us were urban metropolitans, and by 2050 that number will rise to 70 percent. We are adding the equivalent of seven New Yorks to the planet every year – putting a huge strain on the planet’s resources and infrastructures in the process. And it’s not just the number of cities that is on the rise; their size is increasing, too. Welcome to the age of the megacity.

Megacities are defined as urban population centers of more than 10 million inhabitants, and they are on the rise: 60 years ago there were only two, New York/Newark and Tokyo, but today there are 22 such megacities – the majority in the developing countries of Asia, Africa, and Latin America – and by 2025 there will most likely be 30 or more. As these megacities evolve, many groan under the weight of a sudden, massive and unprecedented demand for services. The basic necessities of clean water, of sanitation systems to remove megatons of garbage and human waste, of transportation systems to shuttle millions of workers – not to mention the need for electrical networks, healthcare facilities, and policing and security – are creating one of the greatest logistical challenges ever seen in human history.

And the challenge is only going to intensify, with experts predicting the expansion and merging of already highly urbanized zones to form a number of ‘megalopolises’ – vast swathes of development such as the one made up of the Greater Boston-New York City-Philadelphia-Baltimore-Washington areas (the so-called Northeast megalopolis) with an urban population of 55 million. Indeed, the phenomenon of endless urban sprawl could be one of the most significant developments – and problems – in the way people live and economies grow in the next 50 years, according to UN-Habitat, the agency for human settlements, in its bi-annual State of World Cities report.

On the one hand, the development of such mega-regions is generally regarded as positive, asserts the report’s co-author Eduardo Lopez Moreno. “They [mega-regions], rather than countries, are now driving wealth,” he says. “Research shows that the world’s largest 40 mega-regions cover only a tiny fraction of the habitable surface of our planet and are home to fewer than 18 percent of the world’s population, but account for 66 percent of all economic activity and about 85 percent of technological and scientific innovation. The top 25 cities in the world account for more than half of the world’s wealth, and the five largest cities in India and China now account for 50 percent of those countries’ wealth.”

Yet the growth of mega-regions and cities is also leading to unprecedented urban sprawl, new slums, unbalanced development and income inequalities as more and more people move to satellite or dormitory cities. “Cities like Los Angeles grew 45 percent in numbers between 1975-1990, but tripled their surface area in the same time,” says Moreno, who believes that urban sprawl is the symptom of a divided, dysfunctional city. “It is not only wasteful, it adds to transport costs, increases energy consumption, requires more resources, and causes the loss of prime farmland,” he explains. “The more unequal that cities become, the higher the risk that economic disparities will result in social and political tension. The likelihood of urban unrest in unequal cities is high.”

What is most shocking about the report, however, is that the US emerges as one of the most unequal of all the world’s societies, with cities such as New York, Chicago and Washington showing higher levels of inequality between the haves and have-nots than places like Brazzaville in Congo-Brazzaville, Managua in Nicaragua and Davao City in the Philippines. “The marginalization and segregation of specific groups creates a city within a city,” says Moreno. “The richest one percent of households now earns more than 72 times the average income of the poorest 20 percent of the population. In the ‘other America’, poor black families are clustered in ghettoes lacking access to quality education, secure tenure, lucrative work and political power.”

Infrastructure concerns

Infrastructure has a key role to play in reducing these disparities, as a recent Siemens study into the challenges facing megacities as population growth continues to explode shows; 81 percent of stakeholders involved in city management cite the importance of the economy and employment in infrastructure decision-making.

In the Siemens study, transportation emerges as the top megacity infrastructure challenge by a large margin – not least because it is seen as the one infrastructure area that stakeholders believe has the biggest impact on city competitiveness. They are also highly aware of its environmental impact (for example, air pollution) and are keen to move to greener mass transit solutions. It is not surprising therefore to find that transport also emerges as the top priority for investment. Stakeholders acknowledge that the four other infrastructure sectors covered by the study – water, electricity, healthcare, and safety and security – are also in need of investment, but interestingly they are less likely to see a strong link between spending in these areas and improved competitiveness, despite the fact that each has an important impact on the overall attractiveness of the city for investment.

Water infrastructure is also being pegged as a major concern for city administrations in the coming years. Megacities around the world must find ways to control runoff while providing clean water for millions of inhabitants. With the World Health Organization suggesting 1.1 billion people – or 18 percent of the world’s population – now lack access to safe drinking water, governments increasingly need the money and know-how to build massive public works.

In São Paulo, Brazil, for instance, planners are struggling to cope with a drainage system that was built when the city was a fraction of its current size. Poor maintenance has left much of it clogged, while forest and parkland have given way to haphazard housing in many areas of the world’s third-largest city. Now there are fewer green areas to soak up incessant rains. Meanwhile, Mexico City is sucking up water from natural aquifers at twice the rate they are being replenished. The result: Mexico City is sinking, in some areas up to 16 inches a year, threatening its entire infrastructure – including the city’s deteriorating drainage system, whose capacity has diminished by 30 percent since 1975 while the area’s population has doubled. In addition, the city, which sits at an altitude of over 7300 feet, must pump water up 3000 feet to reach residents. Last year it had to ration water after one of the worst droughts in six decades. The drainage program includes plans for treatment plants to turn runoff into clean water for use by farmers.

New solutions for old problems

The infrastructure and engineering challenges presented by the emergence of these densely populated urban centers are significant, not least because such rapid growth is being played out in the largest and most complicated urban habitats human beings have ever lived in. Managing such complex systems in the future is going to take a much smarter approach than the ones we are currently using.

Faced by huge pressures on public services, cities tend to emphasize direct and immediate supply-side solutions. However, this does not always mean adding more capacity: in many cases – particularly in the highly developed megacities of the US – increasing the efficiency of existing infrastructure over building new roads, railways and hospitals can be just as effective. By contrast, although it is mentioned by a minority of the survey respondents, demand management never emerges as a priority. Demand management approaches have been advocated in a variety of areas, but even the specialists in specific infrastructure sectors do not see managing demand as the primary solution to their challenges. Yet with consumption consistently outstripping supply in many cities and infrastructure areas, there is a strong case for the wider adoption of demand management strategies on a global basis.

Many believe the answer lies in embedding more (and better) technology into the networks and systems that underpin our cities, and the effects of such an outlook are already being felt around the globe. Transportation officials in Singapore, Brisbane and Stockholm are using state-of-the-art systems to reduce both congestion and pollution. Public safety administrators in major cities like New York and Chicago are able not only to solve crimes and respond to emergencies, but to help prevent them. A large hospital organization in Paris is implementing and integrated patient-care management solution to facilitate seamless communication across its business applications – enabling them to track every stage of a patient’s stay in the hospital. While smart water management in the Paraguay-Paraná River Basin of Brazil is helping to improve water quality for São Paulo’s 17 million residents.

And of course, when urban planners can no longer find the surface space to install vital infrastructure components, they go underground. And while few, if any, cities can rival New York in the density and complexity of its subterranean networks, 21st century cities are looking to take the concept to a new level. For instance, officials in Oslo, Norway, may be the next underground pioneers. In their capital, developers have created a whole sub-urban community. Troubled by the city’s hilly terrain, engineers have built all sorts of structures – such as power plants, an air-traffic-control tower, and a dairy processing operation – under the surface. As a result, some of the world’s most sophisticated air-circulation systems can be found in Oslo, as well as underground lighting that's tweaked to mimic the movement of the sun throughout the day.

Thoreau called the city “millions of people being lonesome together”, but it needn’t be; that is where infrastructure – the underlying network of nodes and interconnections that underpin every urban center – has a vital role to play.

Building from the ground up

With cities consuming 75 percent of our natural resources, is a blank-canvas approach to development the key to our urban future? These new city projects are being built from the ground up, and could provide a blueprint for future urban projects.

Masdar City, Abu Dhabi
Touted as the world’s first zero-carbon city, Masdar will be car-free, powered by renewable energy with services digitally managed and providing real-time information. With a maximum distance of 200 metres to the nearest transport link and amenities, the compact network of streets will encourage walking and is complemented by a personalised rapid transport system. Shaded walkways and narrow streets will create a pedestrian friendly environment, while surrounding land will contain wind, photovoltaic farms, research fields and plantations, enabling the city to be entirely self-sustaining.

Dongtan, Shanghai
Development plans for this ‘city within a city’ – currently being built on an island off the coast of Shanghai – call for it to be modest in size (500,000 residents) and scaled for the people who will live there, rather than for automobiles or architectural monoliths. It is also designed to be completely self-sufficient, providing its own food and energy. Chinese officials hope Dongtan will offer practical lessons about pollution control and sustainability that can be applied to Shanghai proper, as well as to other rapidly growing urban areas.

Songdo, South Korea
Songdo is located on the waterfront of the South Korean city of Incheon and will feature numerous eco-credentials – beautiful open space and parks, green roofs, solar passive design, co-generation plants, a waste management system, mass transit and over 120 buildings built to LEED standards. It is expected to cost over $30 billion, house 75,000 residents and handle 300,000 commuters. The first phase of the city has already been completed and Central Park, the 100-acre green space modeled after New York City’s landmark park, is now finished.

And in the US…
Treasure Island, San Francisco
A masterplan developed for the proposed $1.4-billion island by architectural and engineering services company Skidmore, Owings and Merrill details up to 8000 new homes (30 percent of which would be affordable to those on lower incomes), several solar-powered skyscrapers, an organic farm, three hotels, several shops and restaurants, a wastewater treatment plant, large-scale wind turbines for energy generation and 300 acres of recreational land. The goal is to create a sustainable, compact, mixed-use residential community that is not car-dependent.

People magnets
Employment and educational opportunities are the main attraction of urban centers. But hopes for a better life are often dashed as overpopulation puts a huge strain on cities’ infrastructures and their ability to provide basic necessities – like clean water and a decent place to live. Consider:

• Overall almost 180,000 people move into cities every day
• Of the billion people designated very poor, over 750 million live in urban areas
• 1 billion people, one-sixth of the world’s population, now live in shanty towns
• The number of slum-dwellers is estimated to grow by nearly 500 million by 2020


Mega-growth
In 1950, there were 83 cities with populations exceeding one million; by 2007, this number had risen to 468. In 1950, New York City was the only urban area with a population of over 10 million. Geographers had identified 25 such areas as of October 2005, as compared with 19 megacities in 2004 and only nine in 1985. The UN forecast tells that in 2015, over 600 million people are expected to have their home in a megacity.

Factoid:

Greater Tokyo already has 35 million residents, which is greater than the entire population of Canada